With a reduction in the volume of sales in the retail sector and lower purchasing power of consumers due to the rise in indebtedness and defaults, the trade scenario requires increased care on the part of industry credit analysts, although the sector is optimistic. 

Since January, retail sales have declined. According to the Monthly Survey of Commerce (PMC) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), this decrease was more pronounced between March and May, with a slight recovery in June.  
(table below) 

In May retailers sold 0.7% less than in the previous month (April). When compared to May 2022, the drop was 1.1%. 

Household debt is the highest in the last 12 years, says FecomercioSP 

The scenario becomes even more delicate considering the increase in household indebtedness, which reached 78% according to the Radiograph of Credit and Indebtedness of Families in Brazilian Capitals , prepared by the Federation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo (FecomercioSP). The percentage represents the highest rate of the last 12 years. 

Another point of attention is the increase in rates of late payment of debts by consumers. Still according to the federation's survey, approximately 4.9 million had some overdue account at the end of June this year, which means something around 600 thousand more than last year. 

Optimism grows in the industry, points out CNI 

On the other hand, despite this challenging context, the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) , from the National Confederation of Industries (CNI), points to outstanding optimism in the sector in August. 

According to the survey, the advance was 2.1 points to 53.2 points, placing industry confidence at the highest level since October 2022. 
(table below) 

The CNI attributes the result mainly to improved expectations. This argument may be related to some observations made by finance and risk management specialist Daverson Furlan , technical director of Planope Consultoria. 

He explains that despite the geopolitical impacts that affect this post-pandemic year – like the war in Ukraine – some movements in national politics have brought hope. 

As examples of this Furlan mentions the processing of the tax reform – after decades – and the economic package in the Senate. “The new fiscal framework is not the best, but it represents advances” , he says, who assesses that we are “moving towards some economic stability.” 

Credit in industries: after all, would this be a moment of greater conservatism or not? 

This is a question whose answer will depend on isolated factors beyond this macro panorama. That is, it requires an individualized look from analysts, assessing the situation of each customer's segments and niches – considering that some markets can inspire good economic prospects and, therefore, lower risk in granting credit.  

In Furlan's opinion, the great message of the moment is: caution. “Accurate follow-up is needed, client by client” , says the specialist, who emphasizes that it is fundamental not to take as a main reference the longstanding relationships with borrowers who already have more time in the portfolio. “It's not just the new customer that poses the greatest risk.” 

That's because, to face the obstacles of the pandemic, many retail companies needed to make risky decisions, such as financing and other financial maneuvers, for the survival of the business. “Many companies got into debt and now that account has arrived” , warns Furlan. 

Attention to detail can be the differential to mitigate risks 

As a point of attention in the analyses, the specialist emphasizes that caution in the analyzes is not only related to the ruler of the corporation's credit policy, but with the expertise in the face of details, even though some decision-making may take a little more time. time – which is the challenge in times when productivity is often linked to the idea of ​​“doing more in less time”. 

Furlan's suggestion, who as a consultant acts directly on the pain of companies, is that analysts stick to the high responsibility of this front line that credit represents for the financial health and maintenance of business in the industries in which they operate. 

“It is advisable to always review customer assets, for example”, he says, citing topics such as accounts payable, accounts receivable, inventories and, above all, the risk that may come from encumbered assets – from the company and its partners.  

Fonte:

https://cispintercambio.com/2023/08/11/analises-de-credito-nas-industrias-quedas-no-varejo-e-alto-endividamento-do-consumidor-demandam-mais-rigor/